Expect slow adoption of all three consoles next generation

Note:  I took some advice from my brother at my father’s funeral this week.  He advised me to go back to writing again full time. This is my first article in 3 months so I’m a little rusty.

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EA CFO Blake Jorgensen has said that the development cost per game could be five to ten per cent higher on PS4 than its current-gen systems.  Today, we are living in an age where games have to sell 2 million to 5 million units (depending on the game’s overall budget).  Who can forget when EA’s Labels president Frank Gibeau said Dead Space 3 needed to sell around around five million to continue to investing in an IP like Dead Space.

Today’s games struggle to break even with two to five million copies on 360 (76 million units worldwide) and PS3 (77 million units worldwide) which is a total of 153 million units worldwide.  Think about that.  You’re struggling to sell 3 million games to an install base of 153 million consoles sold.   That means they are failing to sell their game to 2% of 360/PS3′s combined install bases.  [Editor's Note: Not every single unit sold can be counted as individuals, but it's still a massive install base regardless.]

What chance is there to break even on brand new consoles (Xbox 720, PS4, Wii U) with install bases that are starting from scratch with 5-10% added to next gen development costs?

Watch Dogs multiplatform

Publishers would not be doing cross generation games (games developed for next gen and current gen) if they thought next gen consoles would build a strong install base quickly.  When you see games like Grand Theft Auto 5, Watch_Dogs, and Assassin’s Creed 4 coming to Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, it will slow down the adoption rate of new consoles like PS4, Xbox 720, and Wii U.  It’s the same reason why adoption of the Wii U isn’t happening at a faster rate.  Selling a console where the majority of the software is PS3/360 ports is only giving people a reason to stick with their 360/PS3 for another year.  Plus, 360/PS3 owners continue to get great software like Tomb Raider and Bioshock Infinite, while a new system like Wii U is struggling to get software at the moment.  What’s the incentive of buying a new console when the old consoles get great software support?

The Bottom Line: The longer third party publishers support Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 with strong AAA software (especially cross generation software), the slower people will jump on the next gen console bandwagon (PS4, Xbox 720, Wii U).

It also doesn’t help that PlayStation 4 and Xbox 720 will cannibalize each others launch sales numbers since they are are launching at the same time and targeting the same types of gamers with similar games and similar services.

If NPD’s statistic that 29% of core gamers will buy a next gen console on launch came true, it gets a LOT smaller when you divide that percent between two consoles.  Because let’s face it, the majority of people (aside from the biggest gaming enthusiasts who buy everything day one) won’t buy both consoles in the first 2 or 3 years.  Most will just choose one or the other. It also doesn’t help that NPD’s percent can decrease if consumers are not happy with the price announcements.

One trend I’ve noticed recently with the game industry is we always get reports about consoles and handhelds selling out preorders before launch.  And then months later, the sales go flat (3DS, Wii U, PS Vita) and all of the analysts and gamers start screaming doomed.  (Exhibit AExhibit BExhibit C)   This seems to be quite a trend, and I won’t be surprised when this happens with PlayStation 4 and the next Xbox as well.  I have very little confidence that the gaming industry knows what they’re doing with their next gen consoles.  At this point, they are throwing anything at the wall and hoping they’ll attract some mobile casual gamers from it.

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Breaking down Xbox 360′s install base.

 

xbox 360

 

Xbox 360 launched on November 2005 when there were no iPads.  The first iPad didn’t launch until 2010.  The first iPhone didn’t hit until 2006 and didn’t come mainstream until a few years later.  When we talk about Xbox 360/PS3/Wii, we’re talking about a world that wasn’t completely consumed by mobile devices.  Today, in 2013, it’s a completely different situation.

Microsoft had a one year head start from its competition (much like the Wii U does today).    Xbox 360 sales reached 28 million by January 2009.  By October 2012, Xbox 360′s sales reached 70 million.  IDC then later reported that Xbox 360 had shipped 76 million units by January 2013.

What does this tell you about consumer behavior?

48 million out of 76 million Xbox 360 owners waited until after January 2009 to buy a Xbox 360.   That means 63% of current Xbox 360 owners waited at least THREE YEARS [+ two months]  after  the 360 launched, before buying an Xbox 360.

Let’s fast forward to January 2011.  Xbox 360 hits 50 million worldwide.  Subtract that from Xbox 360′s current install base of 76 million.

That means 26 million Xbox 360 owners (34 percent of current global install base) didn’t buy an Xbox 360 until after January 2011.

One third of Xbox 360′s worldwide install base didn’t buy a 360 until 5 years [+ 2 months] later.

If 63 percent of 360′s worldwide install base didn’t buy the console until 3 years later, I highly doubt [most] of that 63% will buy the next Xbox (Durango) in the first two years.

If 34 percent of 360′s worldwide install base didn’t buy the console until 5 years later, they will not be standing in line for the next Xbox (Durango) in the first two years.

This is a problem because they need the install base to grow as fast as possible (the first two years) to offset additional development costs of next gen games that publishers face.

 

 playstation 3

 

PlayStation 3 faces a similar story, but PlayStation 3 did not have a one year head start like the Xbox 360 did.

PlayStation 3 launched in October 2006, and on August 2009 (two and a half years later) it sold 23.9 million units worldwide.

On February 2013, IDC reported that PS3 reached 77 million worldwide.  That means from July 2009 through January 2013, it sold 53,090,000 (53 million) units.

This means 68 percent of PlayStation 3 owners did not buy the console until at least two and a half years after PlayStation 3 launched.

When you fast forward to 2010, it gets more interesting.

PlayStation 3 didn’t hit 35 million worldwide units until May 13, 2010.  Now subtract 35 million from the 77 million that IDC reported.

That means the remaining 42 million (54 percent) of PS3 owners didn’t buy their PS3 until after May 2010.  Three years [+ roughly six months] after PlayStation 3 launched.

 

 

This could mean that most gamers might not be ready for next gen (including Wii U) since they jumped into current gen late into the generation.

What does it mean?

It tells me that current gen started much later for most owners of current gen consoles.  With most console generations, a console would peak in sales performance after 2 or 3 years and then decline.  But the complete opposite was happening with 360/PS3.  You would assume that next gen consoles would be bought by the early adopters who bought 360′s and PS3′s in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.  You figure, “Well, those people are tired of their consoles by now.  They’ve had them for about 6 to 7 years.”  That would be true, but the amount of early adopters who bought those consoles in those years (’05, 06′, 07′, o8′) make up a small fraction of the global install bases for those consoles.

Most people bought Xbox 360′s and PlayStation 3′s really late in the generation.  The people who bought a 360/PS3 in the first 3 years aren’t responsible for the huge install bases.  Majority of sales for 360/PS3 came in late 2009 through 2012.  A very small percentage of consumers bought these two consoles between the years 2005 through first half of 2009.  You could blame this on why the current generation was dragged out for so long.

This could mean that most gamers might not be ready for next gen (including Wii U) since they jumped into current gen late into the generation.  Also, take into consideration that the install bases of PS3/360 will continue to grow in 2013.  In the most likely scenario,  the people who bought a PS3 in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 are less likely to buy a PlayStation 4 in the first 2 to 3 years.

Another note: You can’t assume that everyone who was an early adopter of a 360/PS3 will return to buy the next Xbox/PlayStation 4 at launch.  Every 6 years, people get older, which means their spending habits, personal tastes, and priorities are going to change.

Below is a chart provided by NPD that shows normalized hardware sales from 1995 through 2010.   Take into consideration that this particular chart’s data wasn’t filled out for certain years due to the chart being a couple years old.  But you can probably fill in the blanks for the last couple of years.

Xbox_360_sales_NPD

 

How much (on average) do consumers spend on electronics in 12 months?

If you spend lots of time on message boards for gaming enthusiasts, you’ll walk away thinking that most people have tons of money to spend on consoles and games.  But that’s why they call them enthusiasts.  They obsess over their hobbies beyond the norm.

In 2011, U.S. citizen’s average income was $54,134.

When asked how much they spent on electronics in the past 12 months, most U.S. citizens replied that they spent around $1,000.  This was the average for the U.S.

In Accenture’s chart below, you will see a list of countries with two bars.  The top bar (darker blue) is the average income.  The bottom bar (lighter blue) is how much consumers spent on electronics within 12 months.

consumer electronics 2011

Source: Accenture (via Statista.com)

 

Bundle.com did their own research on U.S. consumer spending on electronics from April 2010 through April 2011.  The following data below is data provided from the U.S. government. transactions from Citi, and third party data providers.

One thing to notice is that according to Bundle’s infographic below, the U.S. average spends $48 per month on electronics.  Multiply that by 12 and the U.S. spending average on electronics would be around $576 for 12 months.

Accenture’s data says average U.S. spending on electronics is around $998 while Bundle’s data says they spend around $576.  So who do we believe?

First thing to point out is that both Accenture and Bundle agree that the average U.S. citizen does NOT spend more than $1,000 on electronics in one year.

What makes Bundle’s information interesting is that they break down the data by cities, ages, household types, and annual income.

 

Bundle electronics-spending-inforgraphic

 

According to Bundle’s data, the “average” U.S. citizen between the ages of 26 through 35 does not spend more than $46.83 per month on electronics.  This means that the average 26 to 35 year old U.S. citizen doesn’t spend more than $561.96 in a year.  Again, this is an average.  Some cities have higher rates of unemployment and poverty than other cities.  This is factored into the average.

Here is why this information is important:   According to the ESA, the average gamer is 30 years old and has been playing for 12 years.  Sixty-eight percent of gamers are 18 years of age or older.

For men, the average age at first marriage is 28.7, while the average woman is getting married for the first time at age 26.5.

So let’s say a 30 year old is going to spend “roughly” $561.96 on electronics for the entire year.  If a game console like PlayStation 4 or the next Xbox releases at $400…that person just spent 71 percent of the average U.S. citizen’s electronics budget (not including games, accessories, or paying for online membership services).

With this information, do you really believe most U.S. citizens are going to buy more than one next gen console in a single year?

 

But what electronics do they buy when they ARE spending money?

Nearly 60 percent of all 2011 consumer electronics sales were driven by the top five categories; PCs, TVs, tablets/e-readers, mobile phones, and video game hardware

In 2010, video game hardware only made up 6.4% of sales in electronics.  In 2011,  video game hardware declined to 5.6%.

On February 2013, it was reported that  Apple took 1 in every 5 dollars spent on U.S. consumer electronics.

Here is a chart below so you can see how money was spent on electronics in both 2010 and 2011 in the U.S.

Electronics share of revenues

Final Thoughts

A person on twitter named AGTURBO9000 told me, “This gen is the only gen where a 2nd and 3rd place console shipped over 75 million units”.  He’s right.  It’s such a rare thing in gaming history that I can’t see all three consoles being super successful again unless somehow, the expanded market from Wii/Kinect/PS Move decided to all run back to them.

SCENARIO ONE:  What would happen if next generation followed the same pattern as generation 6?

PlayStation 2 shipped 105 million units globally by the end of 2006. On the other hand, Xbox 1 shipped only 24 million units and Nintendo GameCube shipped a depressing 21 million units worldwide.  In this situation, the market decided that PlayStation 2 would be their primary console, and the market saw GameCube/Xbox 1 as “secondary” consoles.  Guess what happens when two consoles fight to be people’s “secondary” console?  The market splits up the install bases of GameCube and Xbox which explains why their install bases were so small (and so close).

For next generation, we’re expected to get 5 consoles:

  • PlayStation 4
  • Xbox 720
  • Wii U
  • Ouya
  • Steam Box

Reminds me of the 5th generation where we had 5 consoles to choose from:

  • PlayStation 1
  • Nintendo 64
  • Sega Saturn
  • 3DO
  • Atari Jaguar

This brings us the following scenario.  What if next gen was more like the 5th generation (N64/Saturn/PS1)?

Ouya and Steam Box remind me of 3DO and Atari Jaguar because they are systems that will would appeal to very niche audiences of gamers.  You might think “Steam’s audience isn’t niche!”  Steam’s PC market isn’t niche.  The idea of Steam’s audience ditching their PC’s for a Steam console hybrid? Yeah, that’s niche.

 

5th generation chart

 

SCENARIO TWO:  What would happen if next generation followed the same pattern as generation 5?

One main console will be super successful like PlayStation 1.

Second main console will be a moderate success like Nintendo 64.

Third console will flop like the Sega Saturn, but it probably won’t sell as bad as the Saturn.

And I predict the two niche systems will barely make much of an impact for more than a few years.

 

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23 Comments to Expect slow adoption of all three consoles next generation
    • Stephen
    • My condolences for you loss.

      Another great read! I look forward to reading more of your upcoming articles.

    • Délio
    • That was a good article!
      I do agree that PS3 and Xbox 360 getting a good number of games for one or two years will eat into PS4 and X720`s sales.
      The market is the same, prices will be really different and from what we have been seeing with PS4, despite the social features, the only thing that changed was graphics. Also, if the prices for X720 and PS4 are above 400, you will really see a low adoption rate and parity in sales.

      I don`t think that Ouyia and Steambox will bring any disruption.
      I do believe that with more 1st party and the relevant 3rd party support (doesn`t really matter if it doesn`t get all games, if it gets the big system sellers) and with a better price, Wii U will make a difference and stand out again from the competition.

      How will sales be between all 3? I have no idea, but i imagine Wii U> PS4> Xbox 720

    • *NormalGamer*
    • We don’t know how the 8th generation will play out, but we will see things more clearly when all players play out their hand in full. It’s the only way to put the pieces of the puzzle together.

    • peach_life
    • I totally agree with the point you’re making about how completely sales focused the industry has become with this generation of systems and its only going to get worse when the next generation is introduced. The wii was a catastrophe to most of the industry apart from nintendo itself as its runaway success early on, reset consumer’s attentions to motion gaming and took any sales momentum of its competitors away with it. Sony, Microsoft and third parties have been trying since to recoup that lost market share/profit from the wii success years and is why I think they dragged this generation on for so long. But I think this was really short sighted of sony/microsoft and may have potentially done more harm then good. Dragging out the life cycles for so long and wheeling out the next ‘HD sequel X’ one after another like clock work has made a lot of people apathetic and disenfranchised with the industry as a whole.

      We only have to look at how some of the AAA titles released this year have fallen short of market sales expectations and have basically just been ignored by wider mass market audiences, titles like DMC, Dead Space 3, Dishonored come to mind. We’re even seeing mighty untouchable hits like call of duty see pretty big falls in sales in relative percentage terms. These are are very dangerous signals for the vitality/longevity of an entertainment industry as a whole, in its traditional packaged home console model sense anyhow. The simple fact is that the current mentality of publishers and console manufacturers are at a detriment to the industry, they have become so risk averse, sales driven that its made the industry come to a point of stagnation and it will continue to get worse with next gen. Look at ps4 future titles shown at their conference, Killzone, infamous etc and it was all largely met with apathy.

      The industry cannot ignore the casual mass market and its in danger of easily losing this crucial driving consumer base to apple ios/android/facebook games. They are even failing to fundamentally even satisfy their traditional consumer base with this stagnation in the industry of just releasing the next sequel after next sequel. We have seen that games that diversify and really convey something unique and different can work ninokuni show glimmers of hope that the market is willing to respond when publishers offer something different than just sequels.

      Offering nothing more then just better technical specs is not going to cut it next gen. We are at a point where all computer devices are graphically powerful enough to satisfy the casual gamer. So its all up for the taking to whoever can really push themselves out there and create another wii type disruption and really push new ip thats going to attract and excite the traditional consumer base aswell. If they fail at this there’s going be a lot of hurt going early into the next generation. Ps vita and wii u show this already with weak sales early on, although wii u has more potential as it sold very well during holiday period… I think nintendo really had a good chance to reignite the industry this year but they completely botched the launch of wii u and were too complacent and ignorant about some these market trends discussed. Its funny because we would have thought nintendo would have been the most capable candidate out of the three to get what the mass market want?! It will be interesting to see how its all going to unfold and all competitors play their cards by the end of the year, its gonna be brutal competition this year.

    • CoffeeWithGames
    • A few things…

      1) “I have very little confidence that the gaming industry knows what they’re doing with their next gen consoles. At this point, they are throwing anything at the wall and hoping they’ll attract some mobile casual gamers from it.”

      We don’t know just yet what Microsoft is doing with their “next gen” console, so it’s a bit early to include them in this scenario I think.

      2) “Most people bought Xbox 360′s and PlayStation 3′s really late in the generation.”
      If adoption rates increased the longer the 360/PS3/Wii were on the market, that would make sense with their prices going down as well. The PS3 was not always $500 and $600 like it was at launch, and the PS3 and 360 have had a few redesigns along the way. This generation, not all of the consoles dropped below $200 within a year and a half of release (PS2 released at $299.99, and dropped to $199.99 less than 6 months after the Xbox and GameCube released, forcing both of those consoles to drop their prices as well), so prices were probably a bigger factor early on.

      3) “If 34 percent of 360′s worldwide install base didn’t buy the console until 5 years later, they will not be standing in line for the next Xbox (Durango) in the first two years.
      This is a problem because they need the install base to grow as fast as possible (the first two years) to offset additional development costs of next gen games that publishers face.”
      Again, we don’t know anything about the PS4 and Durango pricing at this point, but I am guessing (based off their current model) that the Durango will have multiple pricing models, one probably starting under $200, at $199.99 with a subscription attached to it.

      If Microsoft quickly stops producing/selling the 360 (look at Apple and older model iPhones/iPads, production is stopped very quickly and put into the new products), then it will make their next console more attractive, because it will be the “smart choice” to buy, instead of the older model no longer being produced/supported.

      Nintendo’s main problem, IMO, has been horrid management. Horrid Wii U advertisements in their first market with it. Horrid relationships with distributors/retailers (see: Amazon.com not carrying the Wii U/3DS directly). Releasing a console that doesn’t even function as it should when it freezes, and not getting that updated in the first month (still not sure if it is).

      Now Sony, if they are releasing the PS4 over $400, I agree, I expect the adoption rate to be really, really slow. I don’t even see why they need a new console now, other than they are trying to make sure they aren’t left behind when Microsoft releases their next one.

      I guess in short, until we know prices and structuring, I think it’s really hard to say the adoption rate will be slow for the PS4 and 720 (Durango).

    • Michael Rowan
    • you fail to account for the xbox 360s failure rate (rrod) i know mayny people who have bought between 2-3 (common) to 6 (rare) over the years even with the elite the GPU just fails.

    • Jakrabbit
    • There is one thing i really don’t understand is why console makers have not gone for an os based gaming/entertainment system similar to pc’s. I mean it just seems like common sense to me.
      Of coarse there is probably a reason why.

    • Colin
    • Very long article with nit picky information lol. But between ‘tendo (and the flak given to WiiU), Sony ‘n’ M’soft. Come 720/PS4 launches, they will struggle. PS3 is getting all praise now, but when they launch thet’ll have less relavant software vs WiiU, higher price for console, games and peripherals. And as this article points out, everyone only just bought PS3s now. These ppl wont lash out for PS4 anytime soon. Continued support of PS3 is great but only works against PS4. Self canabalism
      Steam box wont wipe out consoles…. Period. Ppl arent going to buy into complicated hardware, with various OSs, glitches faults, and games will have no standard hardware (processors and controllers) for devs to programme for

    • kdognumba1
    • Sorry to hear about your loss.

      Glad to see you’re writing again though as this is one of the best articles I’ve read. I agree with your predictions but I do hope that each console finds strong success in one way or another. Personally as a gamer, I really got burned pretty hard this closing gen by all 3 console companies in more then 1 way for each system and I’m really not feeling a lot of the rumors going around the 2 unreleased consoles (not to mention lack of support for BC and sequels for older IP). I already bought a Wii U however I personally will be doing most of my gaming primarily on PC.

      How you said most gamers aren’t ready to adopt new systems, this also holds true for me as I’m still collecting a lot of games from 360, PS3, and Wii (and even DS and PSP) which is where the lack of physical BC kills interest for me. Wii U did somewhat have an upper hand because that means I can transfer all my Wiiware and VC games to it which frees me up to mod my Wii without worrying about my games (which one of those burns I was talking about) so I can play the many games that didn’t make it to the US (which is ANOTHER burn I was talking about). This was a driving incentive for me, along with games that I know won’t be appearing anywhere else or more specifically on PC, such as Monster Hunter and Pikmin 3, and are unique enough for me to care more about the IP.

      I don’t feel much incentive to get the other systems at launch (or around it) however as I kind of feel we’re just going to see a repeat of this closing gen where as most games are 3rd party or 3rd party like and are better on PC graphically and gameplay wise and have user mods (not to mention have better sales). Steambox sounds nice but for me, I don’t have much point in using it because I have a powerful gaming rig. Ouya is the only other stand out for me, one of the reasons being because I don’t have an android device, however I’m pretty confident it will be extremely niche and not a lot of people will get it outside of the indie gaming community however there’s that sparkle of possibility because it IS only $99 which no other system can compete with from a price stand point.

    • klautrec
    • Interesting article. In fact, as the numbers show us, the next generation might suffer from the late adoption of the current gen. I also think that Next Gen consoles need to show fresh experiences for the market, it doesn’t need to kill any well stabilished genre, but showing off Killzone 4 as the first game of the PS4 doesn’t help on the “fresh” sense of it. “Next Gen” consoles needs more than FPS, I love FPS games, but the industry will face a big crysis if they don’t start to make creative games and catch new players, again!

    • DragonsDream
    • I know one of the reasons we waited so long to get an XBox 360 was compatibility. We havd an XBox and lots of games for it, but onc we switched to a 360, half of the games would no longer work. When I switched my DVD for a Blu Ray, all my DVDs kept working. I won’t be getting a 720 any time soon if it means I can no longer play my Assassins Creed or Skylanders or Lego Satr Wars or Guitar Hero games.

    • Luther Tchofo Safo
    • (She’s back!!! :D)

      This was a great read, one of the likes one can’t find on major popular websites. There is a huge among of hype for the upcoming next-gen consoles even though the PS4 has already been unveiled, but I think it quite effectively masks the truth of what their pricing is going to be. Unless we know for sure how the PS4 and the next XBox are priced just like we know for the Wii U, one can only speculate on the future. And this is as much true when dooming Nintendo as it is when glorifying Sony and Microsoft.

      What I would hope for the next generation for the big three is that they would effectively diferentiate themselves through their OWN softwares. Third-party games will be able to be playable on all consoles (as long as developers refrain from being lazy) but all three consoles should distinguish themselves through the difference of gameplay those third-party games can provide on each console and distinguish themselves through real exclusive that showcase games that can only be played on Wii U or PS4 or Xbox, the Wii U or PS4 or Xbox way.

      If the big three wants to stay on top, they have to differentiate themselves from the PC, Ouya, Steam Box and from smartphone games. And they should each find their own positioning and stop cannibalizing each other in this fierce and growing competitive environment.

      P.S.: I’m sorry for your loss and wish you the best in coping with this situation.

    • Nauru wakacje
    • I have been absent for some time, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks , I will try and check back more often. How frequently you update your site?

    • Skai Cyan
    • I liked this, it gave an in depth look at the statistics of the last gen. A lot of this is similar to what I’ve seen speculated on the sales threads on Gaf and my own thoughts, but I’ve never seen it related back to Gen 5 before, only 6. I see either of those scenarios also possibily a third. I also see Sony’s game arm (if not ALL of Sony the way they’ve been carrying on) imploding this gen, for me the writing in in the wall, neither Sony nor Nintendo seem to learn from their mistakes quickly, Sony’s are just a whole lot costlier. It’s funny because they both seem to learn pretty quick from success, though it’s not always the right lesson.

      Also best of luck with your loss.

    • Ebalosus
    • Good read, and I agree with a lot of your points, esp. regarding how excellent titles are still being released for current gen systems in the coming months (GTA V, for example).

      I think that pricing and consumer practices will make-or-break the next generation of consoles. If the prices on the hardware, games, and services is (or is perceived to be) too high, then the systems will REALLY struggle.

      Compounding that is consumer practices. Things like no backwards compatibility, always-online DRM, wont play used games, et cetera will generate a much larger backlash than any price hike, since people don’t like paying more for less.

      As Jim Sterling and others have pointed out: the next generation feels less like a new generation, and more like an extension of the current one, with all the bad practices in tow.

      Thus, I wont be jumping into the next generation until it can offer me something new and interesting, for a fair price, and with me not being treated like a cretin or a criminal

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    • Nick
    • It’s incorrect that this generation has “only” 5 consoles to choose from, same with the 5th generation.

      The 5th also had the Philips CD-i and Apple Bandai Pippin–as well as the portable hardware. They may not have performed well, but they were still there vying for shelf space.

      This YEAR, 2013, is the single most crowded year in the history of gaming with around 15-17 platforms available to consumers.

      This generation will feature the Wii U, PS4, XBO, Ouya, GameStick, Steambox, Google Chromebox, and the Amazon Whateverbox (the latter two being recent news). The rumors persist that Apple may try something.

      On top of this, there are the portables–the 3DS, Vita, Shield, and Neo-Geo X. Yes, same thing here–these may not all have the same possibilities for sales, but that doesn’t change the fact that THEY ARE STILL HERE vying for consumer attention.

      On top of this, the casual market that made the Wii, Kinect, and Move growth are GONE. Gone to tablets and phones and Facebook games.

      I think what we may be facing is that we could potentially be on the cusp of seeing a new industry crash: http://www.gameinformer.com/blogs/members/b/residenthazard_blog/archive/2013/08/13/could-there-ever-be-another-crash.aspx

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